When starting operations TODAY November 10, the dollar was sold for up to 18.50 pesos over the counter in banks. Meanwhile, the interbank exchange rate stands at 17.78 units per dollar, with a loss of 0.13 percent compared to Friday's reference price.
He Mexican peso extended losses the previous day against the dollar and was hovering around two-week lows, while the market continued to analyze the interest rate outlook after a less restrictive than expected message from the Bank of Mexico on the previous day.
Why is the Mexican peso losing?
According to the Banco Base report, the peso begins the session with few changes, showing a depreciation of 0.04 percent, trading around 17.82 pesos per dollar, with the exchange rate touching a minimum of 17.75 and a maximum of 17.93 pesos per dollar.
Although the peso price shows few changes compared to yesterday's close, overnight it showed upward pressure and there is a greater risk of depreciation due to the following factors:
The speculation that Bank of Mexico could begin with interest rate cuts sooner, after yesterday's statement modified the forward guidance on the monetary stance. The statement mentions that the fee must be maintain at the current level for “a certain time”. Likewise, the inflation forecast for the fourth quarter of 2023 was reduced to 4.4 percent and for the first quarter of 2024 to 4.3 percent.
The speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise the interest rate again. Yesterday the president of the Fed, Jerome Powellcommented in a discussion of the International Monetary Fund that they will not hesitate to raise the rate if necessary.
Most depreciated currencies are:
- Israeli shekel with 0.74 percent.
- South Korean won with 0.54 percent.
- South African rand with 0.40 percent.
- Malaysian ringgit with 0.33 percent.
- Turkish lira with 0.32 percent.
- Taiwanese dollar with 0.30 percent.
- Russian ruble with 0.27 percent.
Most appreciated currencies are:
- Norwegian crown with 0.84 percent.
- Hungarian forint with 0.78 percent
- Polish zloty with 0.47 percent.
- Swedish krona with 0.33 percent.
- Czech crown with 0.20 percent.
- Brazilian real with 0.18 percent.
Regarding relevant economic indicators, the Inegi published that in September the Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity (IMAI) grew 0.15 percent monthly, being the lowest growth since February. However, the indicator accumulates 7 consecutive months of monthly growth, according to seasonally adjusted figures.. At an annual rate, industrial activity registered a growth of 4.51 percent.
For its part, the figures from the Administrative Registry of the Automotive Industry of Heavy vehicles corresponding to October 2023. In this month, 4,686 heavy vehicles were sold at retail and 4,651 at wholesale in the national market, showing a annual growth of 40.34 percent and 31.38 percent respectively. On the other hand, in the month of October there was a production of 18,756 vehicles, increasing 8.54 percent.
Finally, the International Traveler Survey (EVI) corresponding to September 2023 showed that in the month a total of 5.25 million visitorsexceeding the total number of visitors in the same month of 2022 by 7.91 percent. However, it is worth mentioning that there is still a considerable lag of 25.09 percent compared to the levels observed in the same month of 2019, prior to the pandemic.
In terms of relevant news, the Department of Business and Commerce of the United Kingdomeither reported that an extension was agreed with Mexico of the “rules of origin” provisions which state that British products remain eligible for reduced or no tariffs.
During the session, the exchange rate is expected to trade between 17.78 and 17.98 pesos per dollar.
Dollar in real time
He euro It is sold at the counter for a maximum of 20.30 pesos and purchased for 19.02 pesos. For its part, the pound sterling It is offered at 22.10 pesos and purchased at 21.75 pesos.
He Bank of Mexico (Banxico) In the previous session, it registered an exchange rate of 18.24 pesos per dollar.
With information from Reuters
MRA/PNMO
