What do Argentina and Mexico need to go to the round of 16? Can you classify the two?

(CNN Spanish) — Millions of eyes are on Group C of the World Cup after Argentina’s historic defeat against Saudi Arabia in their debut in Qatar, which complicates —but does not nullify— their chances of going to the round of 16. Mexico’s path to overcome the group stage seems, for now, somewhat easier.

After Arabia’s 2-1 draw against Argentina and the 1-1 draw between Mexico and Poland, all eyes are set on Saturday, the date on which Mexico will face Argentina and Poland against Saudi Arabia.

At the moment everything can happen. You can classify one of the Latin Americans, you can classify both or neither. The key is that the direct path to qualifying is to win.

Here, the scenarios for this Saturday.

What does Mexico need on this second date?

After the draw against Poland, Mexico can virtually secure their place in the round of 16 if they beat Argentina on Saturday. If they tie, they have to defeat Saudi Arabia on the third date, while if they lose, in addition to having a good result against the Middle East team, they need Saudi Arabia and Poland to tie.

This is how the scores would be in the different scenarios after the next group matches, which will face Argentina and Mexico and Saudi Arabia and Poland.

Points after the second date:

✅ If Mexico beats Argentina and Saudi Arabia and Poland tie

  • 🇲🇽 Mexico 4
  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 4
  • 🇵🇱 Poland 2
  • 🇦🇷 Argentina 0

✅ If Mexico beats Argentina and Saudi Arabia beats Poland

  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 6
  • 🇲🇽 Mexico 4
  • 🇵🇱 Poland 1
  • 🇦🇷 Argentina 0

✅ If Mexico beats Argentina and Poland beats Saudi Arabia

  • 🇲🇽 Mexico 4
  • 🇵🇱 Poland 4
  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 3
  • 🇦🇷 Argentina 0

=If Argentina and Mexico tie and Saudi Arabia beat Poland

  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 6
  • 🇲🇽 Mexico 2
  • 🇦🇷 Argentina 1
  • 🇵🇱 Poland 1

=If Argentina and Mexico tie and Poland beat Saudi Arabia

  • 🇵🇱 Poland 4
  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 3
  • 🇲🇽 Mexico 2
  • 🇦🇷 Argentina 1

=If Argentina and Mexico tie and Poland and Saudi Arabia tie

  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 4
  • 🇵🇱 Poland 2
  • 🇲🇽 Mexico 2
  • 🇦🇷 Argentina 1

❌ If Mexico loses to Argentina and Saudi Arabia beats Poland:

  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 6
  • 🇦🇷 Argentina 3
  • 🇵🇱 Poland 1
  • 🇲🇽 Mexico 1

❌ If Mexico loses to Argentina and Poland beats Saudi Arabia:

  • 🇵🇱 Poland 4
  • 🇦🇷 Argentina 3
  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 3
  • 🇲🇽 Mexico 1

❌ If Mexico loses to Argentina and Saudi Arabia and Poland tie:

  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 4
  • 🇦🇷 Argentina 3
  • 🇵🇱 Poland 2
  • 🇲🇽 Mexico 1

What does Argentina need on this second date?

First, a no-brainer: You need to not lose to Mexico on Saturday. If he loses ❌ he will have to say goodbye to the World Cup in the group stage for the fourth time in his history and all those who bet on his pencas will have to assume their defeat too.

If they beat El Tri, Argentina gets into the fight and depends on Poland not winning. If they tie, mathematically they still have a chance, but it becomes very difficult for them: they need Saudi Arabia and Poland to tie, win the last date against the European team and Mexico not win in their last group stage match.

This is how the scores would be in the different scenarios after the next group matches, which will face Argentina and Mexico and Saudi Arabia and Poland.

Points after the second date:

✅ If Argentina beats Mexico and Saudi Arabia and Poland tie:

  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 4
  • 🇦🇷 Argentina 3
  • 🇵🇱 Poland 2
  • 🇲🇽 Mexico 1

✅ If Argentina beats Mexico and Saudi Arabia beats Poland:

  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 6
  • 🇦🇷 Argentina 3
  • 🇵🇱 Poland 1
  • 🇲🇽 Mexico 1

✅ If Argentina beats Mexico and Poland beats Saudi Arabia:

  • 🇵🇱 Poland 4
  • 🇦🇷 Argentina 3
  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 3
  • 🇲🇽 Mexico 1

=If Argentina and Mexico tie and Saudi Arabia beat Poland

  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 6
  • 🇲🇽 Mexico 2
  • 🇦🇷 Argentina 1
  • 🇵🇱 Poland 1

=If Argentina and Mexico tie and Poland beat Saudi Arabia

  • 🇵🇱 Poland 4
  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 3
  • 🇲🇽 Mexico 2
  • 🇦🇷 Argentina 1

=If Argentina and Mexico tie and Poland and Saudi Arabia tie

  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 4
  • 🇲🇽 Mexico 2
  • 🇵🇱 Poland 2
  • 🇦🇷 Argentina 1

Is it possible for Argentina and Mexico to both pass the group stage?

It’s hard, but yeah.

The two Latin American nations in group C would advance to the next stage of the World Cup under two circumstances:

  1. If Argentina beats Mexico, Poland beats Saudi Arabia and then loses to La Albiceleste and Mexico beats Saudi Arabia, La Scaloneta would be in first place with 6 points, Poland and Mexico tied with 4 points and Saudi Arabia at the bottom of the table. the table with 3 points. In that case it would be defined by goal difference and the two Latinos could get through.
  2. If Argentina and Mexico tie, in the best scenario after the third game they would be left with 4 and 5 points respectively. If Poland beats Arabia and loses to Mexico, those two teams and Saudi Arabia would be left with 4 points each. There, again, the pass to the second round would be defined by goal difference.

As there are still two dates left for the next round to be defined, the match between Poland and Saudi Arabia leaves the competition open. Argentina has a more uphill path, but the truth is that they can reach the round of 16 with 4 points if the goal difference plays in their favour, and that means that today any of the four teams in the group have a chance.

These are the positions at this moment in Group C:

With information from Sebastián Jiménez Valencia.