The government of US President Joe Biden wanted to reduce tension with Iran through discreet diplomacy but its attempt collapsed with the massive attack by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas on Israel.
Iran openly supports Hamas, which runs the blockaded and impoverished Gaza Strip, and applauded Saturday's attack, the deadliest against Israel in decades.
Democrat Biden's administration had entered into negotiations with senior Iranian officials, most of them in Arab Gulf states, and last month reached an agreement for the release of five Americans.
U.S. officials have managed to de-escalate tensions, but progress on Iran's controversial nuclear program has been limited.
Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security adviser, said on September 27 that Iranian-backed attacks in Iraq have stopped "for now" and emphasized a de facto truce in Yemen, a war-torn country where Tehran backs to the Houthi rebels.
– «Not a dollar» –
"The Middle East region is calmer today than it has been in two decades," said Sullivan, who warned however that the situation could change. He mentioned two festering problems: Iran's nuclear program and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
"The Middle East region is calmer today than it has been in two decades," said Sullivan, who warned however that the situation could change. He mentioned two festering problems: Iran's nuclear program and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Less than two weeks later, Hamas made a surprise attack on Israel and American diplomats are trying to prevent the outbreak of violence from spreading in the region.
More than 700 Israelis died in three days of war between Israel and Hamas. On the Palestinian side, 560 people were killed by shelling by Jewish forces.
The Republican Party attacked Biden because the agreement to release American prisoners was offset by the transfer of $6 billion in Iranian oil revenues frozen in South Korea to an account in Qatar.
However, there is no evidence that the money ended up in the hands of Hamas.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that “not a single dollar” has been distributed to his coffers and that the funds are limited solely to humanitarian purposes.
Beyond the money, some experts say the offensive highlights the limitations of Biden's approach to Iran.
"The Iran deal was not just about releasing prisoners, but about establishing some kind of process that could potentially reduce the intensity of the conflict between the two states," explained Ray Takeyh, a researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank. American reflection.
"I see no indication that the Iranians are really interested in reducing tension," he said.
– Iranian support? –
Speaking to NBC News, Blinken declared that the United States had "nothing to demonstrate that Iran was directly involved in this attack, in its planning or in its execution."
But he added that Hamas "would not be Hamas without the support it has received for many years from Iran."
Neomi Neumann, former head of investigation for Israel's internal security agency, the Shin Bet, estimated that the offensive may have been planned in part due to an interest on the part of Iran to stop a normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Saudi Arabia, home to Islam's two holiest sites, is a rival Sunni country to Tehran, whose population is majority Shiite.
"It is reasonable to assume that Hamas trained for many months for this attack, but it is not inconceivable that the current moment is the result of Iranian influence and even pressure," said Neumann, now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Politics. Middle East.
He also highlighted the threat that the Hezbollah movement, a Shiite ally of Iran in Lebanon, would launch a second front if Israeli forces enter the Gaza Strip.
The United States is in favor of giving priority to stopping Iran's controversial nuclear program, but Neumann considers it a mistake to reach an agreement that does not put an end to "subversion in the region and support for terrorist groups."
"Sunni governments in the region appear to share this approach," he said.
Ali Vaez, an expert on Iran at the International Crisis Group think tank, assures that the de-escalation process between Tehran and Washington has not covered "the tensions between Iran and Israel."
"The United States has very little to gain from an escalation against Iran in the midst of this Palestinian-Israeli conflict," he considered.
"That would only add a dangerous nuclear crisis to the tragic turmoil in Ukraine and the Levant as the presidential elections in the United States approach," he estimated.
