Times, genres and candidacies 2023/10/19

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The INE's decision that five women and four men will divide the candidates for the nine governorships that will be contested next June on the issue of gender will alter the route that the parties had set, and is a preview of how Gender quotas will also be raised in deputies, senators and other elected positions.

There will be no changes in the decision because, obviously, neither Claudia Sheinbaum neither Xochitl Galvez They can enter a gender debate of these characteristics, although their parties, and perhaps themselves, had thought of a different distribution.

The truth is that this will force, above all, Morena (because the Broad Front for Mexico is clearly waiting for the ruling party to run out of time so it can see how it plays its cards) to make changes: everything indicates that the governorship of Chiapas will be for the senator Sasil de Leónwhich also has the full support of Manuel Velasco and it can be understood as a quota for the Green Party, which has its largest electoral space in that state.

Rocío Nahle She will be the candidate in Veracruz. I don't think there are other women defined in Morena, although the veto that was imposed on Lucy Meza in Morelos (senator for Morena who was at the top in the preferences, but very much in conflict with Cuauhtémoc Blancowho accuses her of being related to the prosecutor Uriel Carmona) will possibly force them to turn to a female candidate, although none are seen to be close to being very competitive (perhaps Margarita Gonzalez). In Puebla there are good possible options, but it does not seem that any have more possibilities than the senator Alejandro Armentamuch higher in internal polls.

In Tabasco, possibilities open up, in a very divided state within Morena, for a woman, Rosalinda Lopez (SAT official, wife of the governor of Chiapas Rutilio Escandon and sister of Adam Augusto Lopezthe former Secretary of the Interior), although the former director of Fonatur has already been registered there for weeks, Javier May. They are from two opposing political groups in the state.

In Guanajuato it has been registered for the third time Richard SheffieldEditbut Antares Vazquez either Martha Lucía Micher (depends on what happens with Ebrard) could appear, in a state that, in principle, would have the PAN insured with Libya Denisse García. In Jalisco, with an overpopulation of Morena candidates, in a state with a strong predominance of the Citizen Movement, women do not appear in the first places, while in Yucatán the candidacy seems assured for Joaquin Diaz Mena. In Mexico City it is very difficult to Clara Brugada can reverse the candidacy of Omar García Harfuch. The difference between the two in expected votes is too wide.

There is much that will have to be decided in Morena, even beyond the polls and it will not be without internal divisions and tensions that, in part, will have to be sustained with subsequent negotiations of senatorial and deputation offices.

The issue remains pending, within Morena, of Marcelo Ebrard. Personally, I still have my doubts about whether or not the former chancellor will break with his party. Many in the Citizen Movement let it be known that this will be the case, but there are still doubts to clear up. For example, Movimiento Ciudadano voted against the budget reform to eliminate the trusts of the Judicial Branch. The group of Morena deputies who follow Ebrard They voted in favor of disappearance. Yeah Ebrard If he had wanted to make a difference (especially when it was said that he has a group of 40 deputies and senators who are loyal to him), this would have been an opportunity on an issue that has polarized society like few others due to the political weight it has. Could Marcelo be a presidential candidate for a party that has voted so differently on such a transcendent issue? It is a question.

Because, in addition, Movimiento Ciudadano seems to have reached a very pragmatic internal agreement after the meeting they held Dante Delgado and Enrique Alfaro. We don't know the terms of that agreement, but it could well be that Dante have a hand in the election of the presidential candidacy and that Enrique have it in the decisive election, for your party, in Jalisco. And suddenly she has stopped talking about the aspiration of Samuel Garcia for the presidential candidacy (perhaps because it was proven that his removal from office does not guarantee that the state government will remain in the hands of MC, in fact quite the opposite).

In the Frente Amplio there has been a kind of waiting period that implies not only letting Morena advance first in the candidacies, but also recomposing its internal front, advancing in the negotiation between the parties and citizen groups that make up the FAM and beginning to join the team Xochitl Galvezwhich is far from being built.

They have done a good job on the issue of the alternative budget, an avenue that they should exploit much more, but the agreements that will be established in the governorships still need to be determined despite the fact that it is clear that the PAN will have preeminence in states such as Guanajuato, Yucatán, Morelos and most likely Mexico City, but both the PRI and the PRD will want to cover their legislative quotas in exchange for it: but that in the FAM will be later, for now, in their case, the most important thing is to finish putting together the team and the strategy of its presidential candidate.

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