The official results of the elections in Poland certify the victory of the liberal opposition bloc | International

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The official results of last Sunday's elections in Poland confirm the parliamentary majority of the liberal opposition bloc. Also, that the ultra-conservative party of Jaroslaw Kaczynski, at the head of the Government, has come first, for the third consecutive time, but without managing to gain the necessary support to govern. With the complete scrutiny, which already includes the distribution of seats, the process for the constitution of the two chambers of the new Parliament begins, which will last several weeks. The Polish president, Andzrej Duda, must announce the appointment of a prime minister who will be in charge of forming an Executive, foreseeably in the ranks of Law and Justice (PiS). At the end of the road, which is not in sight until December, according to experts, would be the inauguration if nothing goes wrong for a liberal government that redirects the country's relations with the European Union and other partners, and repairs the fissures in the Polish democracy and rule of law.

PiS has achieved 35.38% of votes and 194 seats, below the absolute majority of 231 deputies in the Sejm, the lower house of the Polish Parliament. The sum of the votes of the Civic Coalition, led by the center-right formation Civic Platform (30.70%, 157 seats), Third Way (14.40%, 65 deputies) and Izquierda (8.61%, 26 deputies) exceeds that threshold , with 248 deputies. The far-right Confederation party, for which pre-election polls predicted a decisive third place, has remained in last place, with 7.16% and 18 seats.

Since election night, Kaczynski and members of his party have expressed their intention to seek support, despite the fact that the accounts are not working out. Confederation has insisted that it will not enter into a coalition with PiS. The agrarian formation Polish People's Party (PSL), a member of the Third Way along with the Christian-conservatives of Polska 2050, has also flatly rejected the idea suggested in the media by PiS deputies of starting talks.

The ultra-conservative party has fallen more than seven points in these elections in relation to the results of 2019, when it achieved a parliamentary majority of 235 seats that it lost during the legislature. Wojciech Przybylski, political analyst at Visegrad Insight, pointed out this Monday in an online meeting elements that have influenced the fall of PiS, such as the mobilization of the women's vote, at an unprecedented level. In the previous elections, more than 43% elected this party, but the protests generated throughout the country, including conservative rural areas, due to the almost total ban on abortion, have been able to boost a female protest vote. Security management and the rule of law are other issues, according to Przybylski, that have driven voting in the elections with the highest participation in the history of Polish democracy, with more than 74%.

A limited mission from the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe observed Sunday's elections amid complaints that they were not going to be fair. In an appearance in Warsaw this Monday, the organization criticized “the extensive use of intolerant, xenophobic and misogynistic rhetoric” during the campaign. For the head of the observation mission, Pere Joan Pons, the control of the ultra-conservative Executive over the judicial system and the public media “tilted the playing field, which meant that the opposition did not have full equal opportunities.”

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These two areas, the independence of judges and public media, are going to be two of the first objectives that the opposition sets if it manages to form a Government. PiS has filled the judicial career with magistrates, known as neojudges, appointed by a deeply politicized judiciary. As Przybylski explained, the opposition's intention is to create a process of verifying the suitability of these appointments controlled by the courts, so that the judicial system "heals itself." In the case of television, radio and public companies such as Orlen, which bought a chain of regional newspapers, a cleanup of positions related to PiS is expected.

These elections have been considered the important ones in the EU this year, because Poland potentially ran the risk of being on the brink of PolExit, as the opposition baptized the possibility of the country's departure from the Union. The Poles have largely decided that their place is in Europe, and they have gone en masse to the polls to defend those values. Visegrad Insight believes there will be a rush to see changes in the relationship with Brussels, which the Liberals hope to mend to, among other issues, unlock €35.4 billion in recovery funds. The analysts of the analysis platform warn, however, that the Government “will be consumed by internal issues” such as the state of the economy, with inflation still high, at 8.2%, and the budget, which is not at all clear. after the massive purchase of weapons.

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