The countdown to 2024

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Alejandro Rodríguez Cortés*.

With the beginning of this week begins the long countdown towards the appointment of Mexicans with their destiny: the first Sunday of June 2024 Mexico will define if it still has hope, paradoxically the same one that 6 years ago added 30 million votes to a project promising of the virtuous change that did not come, and that now cries out for another opportunity.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador committed immediate results in economy, security, health, well-being, education, energy and the environment. But its misnamed Fourth Transformation delivers deficit accounts and can only boast much greater social spending that, along with public works that are as costly as they are useless, now incur an onerous fiscal bill.

The popular president bases his strength on economic handouts and the concentration of public power, a well-planned strategy that, however, miscalculated the electoral results of the 2021 midterm elections, when he lost the qualified legislative majority with which he would have annihilated the counterweights. constitutional principles that, by definition, are so despised by any autocrat whose ultimate goal is - also as a rule - to remain in power, even through his own succession.

The pre-campaigns of a process begin where the Mexican voter will elect the first female president in our history: the one who represents continuity and even permanence in power after the throne, or that option that suddenly burst in with that pink tide that did not was looking for a candidate but simply to defend institutions.

Sheinbaum promises the second floor of the 4T as if the pavement below were not full of potholes; Xóchitl offers a path that begins with reconciliation, particularly with a neglected and aggrieved middle class. Claudia rejects the return to a prianism demonized by corruption and excesses; Gálvez tries to distance herself from the necessary cursed parties that nominate her.

These will be the key and conflicting messages of the large cascade of spots that are coming to us. The insipid scientist who consistently repeats the deceitful postulates of the Obradorism, against the businesswoman of indigenous origin who now has before her the obligation to grow in knowledge and acceptance.

They formally begin campaigns that have been going on for some time, even if they are outside the law. The polls show a clear advantage for the former head of government, whose apologists take her victory for granted, probable but not definitive. There is the crux of what is coming and that also takes us to what for me is most important about the election: Congress.

Because for whoever wins, the balance in the Legislative Power will be fundamental, either to continue the path of militarization of the country, the destruction of autonomous institutions and the end of judicial counterweights, or to maintain the balance of an imperfect but viable Republic. in its young democracy.

2024 will be a true referendum that will cover the three powers. If Morena sweeps everything, López Obrador will continue governing from Palenque and will fulfill his ominous “plan C”; If Claudia Sheinbaum triumphs without obtaining a legislative majority, she will have to show her true achievements. For Xóchitl Gálvez, any combination will confront her with the immense challenge of reconstruction, which will be boycotted by the current ruling party and its many governors willing to prove that they were not wrong, although reality has prevailed until now with obvious signs of widespread misgovernment.

Ah! And Samuel García? First, the young royal has no chance of winning the presidency of the Republic and, second, he will only play the sad role of AMLO's scab to take votes from the current opposition and thus reinforce the Tabasco native's path towards a desired absolute victory. , a necessary condition to maintain his obsession with being a national hero even with an ostensibly failed government.


*Journalist, communicator and public relations specialist


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Nathan Rivera
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