Spain and the Meloni moment

“I hope that my victory marks the path to victory for Vox in Spain.” Words by Giorgia Meloni, interviewed by the Efe agency in the final stretch of the Italian electoral campaign.

These are statements that have drawn attention in Italy, since the campaign of the extreme right seemed aimed at softening the tones, reassuring moderate voters and defusing alarms in Washington and Brussels, especially in Brussels. Meloni seemed determined to archive the famous rally in Marbella, on June 12, when she expressly traveled to Spain to support Vox in the Andalusian regional elections.

Vitamins for Vox and more role for Pedro Sánchez in Europe

“Meloni’s speech in Marbella was not liked at all in Italy, especially because of the music, since the Spanish language, when it hardens, acquires a very hierarchical and military tone”, explains Aldo Cazzullo, the most relevant editorialist of the Corriere della Sera . Meloni soon regretted giving that rally. This was recognized by herself in July in an interview with the journalist from The stamp Francesco Olivo: “I saw the video and I didn’t like it at all. When I am very tired, I cannot modulate a passionate tone that is not aggressive”.

If the objective was to forget about Marbella, why has Vox been put back on the screen a week before the elections? The reason is very simple. Meloni has recovered the hard marks in the final stretch, before some surveys (unpublished) that indicate a certain stagnation.

One of the mottos of the Brothers of Italy is “not to lower your head”, not to be ashamed of your identity before the left, not to regret what you are. A militant since the age of 16, daughter of the hard Roman right, Meloni can modulate her tone, but she has not come to this world to hide. She has not studied at the Romay Beccaría school, a sinuous Galician academy of which Mariano Rajoy and Alberto Núñez Feijóo were students. She is inspired by Giorgio Almirante, founder of the Italian Social Movement, official of the Republic of Salò, indomitable tribune.

Therefore, a victory for the Brothers of Italy would be an energy boost for Vox. If the victory is resounding, more vitamins for Santiago Abascal’s party, at a time of decline in the polls and internal tides due to the destabilization campaign launched these days by Macarena Olona, ​​who, obviously, does not work alone.

If Meloni manages to form a government and fulfills his program, he will soon come into collision with the European Commission in defense of Italy’s “national interests”. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has already sent him a warning: “If someone wants to follow the path of Hungary and Poland, we have instruments to act.”

If Meloni governs, he will also clash with the President of the French Republic, Emmanuel Macron, since he has a real fixation with the French. In some of her rallies, the leader of the Brothers of Italy has ridiculed the French accent and has accused the leaders of the Democratic Party (centre-left) of being at the service of Paris. “The French defend their national interests very well, we have to learn to do the same,” she often repeats at rallies.

The strategic convergence between France and Italy that Macron and Mario Draghi were seeking may be broken and this change in geometry, if it occurs, will have to be studied very carefully by the Government of Spain. New maneuvering spaces could open up for Pedro Sánchez. The Spanish president could appear as the main defender of Europeanism in southern Europe, alongside the Portuguese prime minister, António Costa. The Iberian Peninsula, reserve of Europeanism. More fuel for the good relations between Germany and Spain, as we will be able to see at the bilateral summit on October 5 and 6 in A Coruña.

An injection of vitamins for Vox and more centrality for Sánchez in Europe. Perhaps it is not good news for Núñez Feijóo.

Fights between Spain and Italy on the horizon? There would be political disagreements, obviously, but also coincidences. Meloni, for example, defends the construction of a gas pipeline between Barcelona and Livorno,
if France maintains its negative to the resumption of the Midcat.

But another dynamic could also be generated: if Italy becomes the main concern of Germany and the self-proclaimed countries frugal from northern and central Europe, that alert could turn into a greater desire to control Spanish and Portuguese finances.

Let’s see the results. Let’s see the nuances. Let’s see the maneuvers. And let’s see if Mario Draghi becomes Giorgia Meloni’s Lord Protector.