Public finances, with more recurring income; last year of government

Two out of every three pesos that the public sector will obtain in budget income will come from taxes, the highest figure on record.

According to the Income Law approved in the Chamber of Deputies and which also went to the Senate for approval, tax collection in 2024 will be 4.9 trillion pesos, which will represent 67.4% of total income, the highest proportion since the Treasury has data.

Thus, tax revenues will have gained space in the six-year term, with more than seven percentage points, since the six-year term began in a proportion of 59.9% of the total.

In the advance of tax revenues, those that will lose ground in the six-year term will have been oil revenues, as they will go from representing 19.1 to 14.3% of the total between 2018 and 2024, and the rest of the non-oil non-tax revenues will go from 21 to 14.3% of the total between 2018 and 2024. 18.3% of the total in the same period.

According to analysts, tax income is considered recurring income, since it comes from economic activity, that is, as there is greater economic growth, more taxes tend to be collected.

Thus, the logic is that as there is greater consumption of goods and services, more Value Added Tax (VAT) and Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) can be collected, and as there is more employment and companies obtain more income and profits, more may be charged in Income Tax (ISR).

That is why, during the six-year term, public finances will have stopped depending less on volatile sources such as oil revenues, which are subject to both production and international crude oil prices, and will have depended more on more recurrent sources such as tax revenues, which depend on the progress of economic activity.

Within tax revenues, the Income Tax (ISR) will be the tax that will have gained the most space in income, as it will represent the maximum of 37.0% of the total in 2024, from 32.5% of the total that it weighed in 2018.

The VAT will have had a marginal increase, as it will go from 18.0 to 18.2% of the total in the six-year term, and the IEPS on fuel will have almost doubled its participation in the total income of the public sector.

For the organization México Evalúa, the tax collection proposed for 2024 is the most pessimistic growth estimate since 2015, except for the one seen in 2021, in the context of the pandemic. “Compared to 2018, tax revenues will have grown by 20%, higher than what was observed with Fox (8.1%) or Calderón (9.8%), but lower than the 80.7% of Peña. Despite the success of strengthening SAT oversight, the lack of tax reform will have limited the increase in tax collection,” he said.

The organization commented that the greatest promise for tax revenue lies in the IEPS: it is expected that this tax will increase by 35% compared to what was approved for 2023, or 32% compared to what was estimated at the end of the year. “The improvement practically comes from the IEPS charged on fuels, of which an increase of 56% is expected compared to what was approved in 2023,” he expressed in an analysis.

However, México Evalúa warned that there is a worrying situation: the improvement in tax collection from the sale of gasoline will not compensate for the lower income from the sale of oil.