Opinion of the national expert - Breakups, tragedy and crime stalk politics

By Juan Carlos Gómez Aranda

The dominant party is at a point of maximum tension because the day after tomorrow it will announce who will be its pre-candidates for governorships, where the board was complicated by the INE's resolution to apply the gender parity policy with the formula of five women and four men, regardless of the acceptance reflected by opinion measurements, so that in some states the chosen one may be the one who appears in second or third place in the preferences. However, this scenario may change if the Electoral Tribunal of the Judicial Branch of the Federation (TEPJF) revokes the INE agreement, as it seems may happen today.

On the other hand, the surveys will soon be known that will show the recognition of political parties and actors, after the hurricane Otis devastated Acapulco, leaving enormous damage and the perception that the state government and other authorities reacted late and poorly, as happened in 1985 after the September 19 earthquake that devastated Mexico City. As if that were not enough, the storm also revealed what was already known: a dozen criminal cartels and their clones operate in the port, suburban municipalities and other parts of Guerrero.

After setbacks and hesitations, the INE confirmed the application of the gender criterion, a determination that, in several senses, continues to be misunderstood as it is considered a privilege and not an effort to level the playing field in politics and public life. However, despite their disagreement, the political parties did not fight the resolution - except the Citizen Movement - since its rejection would be a politically incorrect position since it refers to more than 50% of the voters.

It is necessary to clearly bear in mind that, increasingly and brilliantly, women occupy spaces in all areas of work activity in the world and, of course, in our country. There is no sector of the economy, science, culture, art, politics, diplomacy and trades where they do not participate successfully. Without a doubt, the principle of equity is contributing to this situation, but it would be necessary to analyze to what extent its application is equivalent to what has been called “positive discrimination”, since equalizing opportunities is not the same as establishing them as an obligation, without it being its own merit that leads women to continue occupying the places they deserve.

Surprisingly, the president of Morena, Mario Delgado, announced that, as of November 5, any act that could be considered to promote the candidates for the governorships of Chiapas, Mexico City, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, Puebla, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatán. This decision was surely to prevent the internal division and bitterness from continuing to deepen, in addition to avoiding the risk of sanctions from the electoral authorities, since examples abound of how many of the candidates were holding events outside the law with excessive expenses.

In order to defuse the situation and gain time to do political moorings, Morena postponed the announcement of who will be its state standard bearers for a week. However, due to the passion that accompanies politics, some will not accept pampering or consolation positions, so it will be difficult to avoid reproaches, perjury, splits and turnaways when the results are announced, because if some of the candidates who They have been walking the territory for years, organizing support structures and making efforts, and in addition, they win the survey, the breeding ground for dissent is ready.

The case of Marcelo Ebrard is illustrative because, despite the commitments made, more than 40 deputies loyal to the former chancellor threatened to leave their party if the Justice Commission rejects – as it surely will or will delay – the challenge to the selection process of the coordinator for the defense of the Fourth Transformation. Ebrard's resignation and his eventual presidential candidacy for MC will lead to the scenario of fewer votes for Morena, hence the suspicion that some power centers are interested in the governor of Nuevo León, Samuel García, being the candidate of this party , since his profile claims to subtract votes from the opposition front.

Otis It will also leave political victims. We will soon see if President López Obrador's acceptance declines, despite the fact that a few days after the tragedy he presented a recovery plan for Acapulco for a little more than 61 billion pesos, which opponents, analysts and those affected consider insufficient to address the 250 thousand damaged homes, 600 hotels, 100 hospitals and clinics, thousands of businesses of all types and sizes, as well as communications and agricultural infrastructure. We still do not know how the feeling that, at the time of the tragedy, they were alone and many families, still alone, continue to combat deprivation, plunder and insecurity, will influence the social mood of the people of Guerrero.

It is urgent to restore public security in Acapulco, since crime does not let up and the cartels continue to act in the midst of the tragedy. According to published information, the Acapulco, Sinaloa, Gulf, Caborca, Los Zetas, Los Granados, La Familia Michoacana, Los Rusos, Los Tlacos and Los Ardillos cartels have a fateful presence in Guerrero.

Unfortunately, the criminal siege is not exclusive to this state and lurks in various parts of the country with the support of social bases that were formed by spaces of government insufficiency, payments or threats, but that still make the application of justice difficult. Are bases They will also vote on June 2. Who will they do it for?