Morena's strange poll to choose her candidate for the presidency of Mexico

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The National Regeneration Movement (Morena), the party of the Mexican Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has devised an original selection process for the future presidential candidate for Morena, which is based on a new type of survey implemented by the same political party.

Morena has absolute influence over Mexican politics. The polls reveal that she will be her candidate, the man or woman to win in the 2024 presidential elections. Five names are the ones that sound the most like candidates for that candidacy and succeed López Obrador. And whoever wins has many numbers to be president and continue with the plain Fourth Transformation.

They are Claudia Sheinbaum, Head of Government of Mexico City; Marcelo Ebrard, Secretary of Foreign Relations; Adán Augusto López, Secretary of the Interior; Deputy Gerardo Fernández Noroña and Senator Ricardo Monreal.

The original new survey will be based on a questionnaire of nine questions, each with a different assessment. The name that collects the most final points will be the official candidate of the leftist party. This selection model, never used until now, will possibly be applied at the end of the year. It has been prepared by the party itself, but has had the collaboration of a polling company in order to achieve maximum transparency and credibility.

The vanguard has consulted the pollster Covarrubias y Asociados for a simulation exercise of how this survey would work. The result she gets seems overwhelming. Claudia Sheinbaum gets 9.75 points, out of 10 possible.

The originality of the Morena survey model is that each of the nine questions asked has a different value. Some are worth 0.25 points. Others reach 2.75 points. The evaluation criteria have been decided by Morena and have been accepted by the participants themselves. This value criterion is decided solely by Morena and is accepted by the participants themselves. The graph below shows what these questions are and how they are formulated:

Of the nine questions, the concepts of proximity, knowledge of the country and compliance each have a value of 0.25 points. Respect for women's rights has a value of 0.50 points. Meanwhile, the concepts of honesty and good candidate have a value of 1 point each. The concepts of "Positive Opinion" and "Willingness to vote" each have a value of 2 points. Finally, the question of "Preference" is the one with the best score, with 2.75 points. The sum of the value of all the topics is ten points.

To avoid a margin of error or a virtual tie when qualifying the results, even the slightest difference in scores will be taken into account. That is to say, if the difference between the contestants is only one tenth, the winner of that question that is qualified will be the one who surpasses the rival even with the slightest difference and will take all the points at stake.

In the exercise carried out by Covarrubias y Asociados, Claudia Sheinbaum got 9.75 points out of a possible 10 and Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard was left with only 0.25 points when he won on the theme of "Know the Country". The preference of the respondents is clear, therefore, about who could be the candidate for the Presidency for Morena.

Although the Covarrubias y Asociados survey is based on Morena's internal selection process model, the pollster points out that it could change both the number of questions and the type of them, but that will depend on the decision made by the party itself. . In addition, in order for there to be a consensus among the participants in the internal contest, Morena would ensure that all applicants know and agree on the number and value of the survey questions, so that in the end, the result be accepted by all and the unity of the party is maintained and keep its strength for the 2024 elections.

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