Hurricane season is not over 2023/10/30

Managing a government crisis involves three moments, in which different things happen. The initial stage, before the crisis breaks out, involves the identification and detection of any type of event that represents a risk for the State; The second stage is the crisis itself, and involves preparation and warning of the event to those who may be affected, as well as control during its development and response to mitigate damage in order to return to normality as soon as possible. The third stage, of repair and learning, can only begin when the crisis is over. Unfortunately, we are not there yet.

The crisis is not over. The hurricane that devastated the coasts of Guerrero last week was nothing more than the event that unleashed it, after the failure of the administration in office to identify the imminent risk, address it in a timely manner and facilitate the return to normal life for those who were affected. The crisis is ongoing, and the three levels of government have failed: the President confuses a government crisis with a political crisis, and hopes to resolve the current crisis using the tricks that he has perfected over the years. The same ones that served him in Tlahuelilpan, when he still had the democratic bonus; the same ones he used during the pandemic, when he still had enough time to guarantee his legacy.

This time it is different, however: the situation in Acapulco is urgent, and the tragedy has put us in the sights of the entire world, both for its origin and its consequences. The speed of the phenomenon has surprised the international community, and the poor reaction of the Mexican State will remain for posterity as an example of what a government should not do in a crisis situation. Everything will be recorded, and history will make the judgment: at this time, the urgent thing is to address the priorities of the population and conclude the ongoing crisis with the return to normality of the people of Guerrero; The important thing is to prepare for the next big hurricane.

Major hurricanes may return; The big hurricanes, after what we have seen, will have to do so very soon. Our geographical position has become, in the era of nearshoring and climate change, both a blessing and a constant threat: the President's reaction—and the Q4 management model—has only served to demonstrate that they are not prepared to face a serious crisis. A crisis that is not political, but governmental; a crisis that will not be resolved in the morning, and that will require more energetic and effective actions than leaving everything—once again—to the Army.

The hurricane season is not over, and the populations on our coasts are not only vulnerable, but helpless: nature cannot be controlled, but whoever exercises government has the legal and moral obligation to be prepared at any time. Climate change is a reality that we cannot continue to ignore, and its effects will result in more black swans like the one we have just suffered: the reconstruction of Acapulco is an immediate priority, but our vulnerability should make the fight against climate change the leitmotiv not only of the current administration, but of those that will succeed it.

The government has undertaken pharaonic projects, whose environmental viability has been questioned from the beginning: the refinery destroyed the mangrove; The train devastated the jungle and seriously affected the ecosystem of a virgin region. The damage is done, and we will all suffer the consequences: last week was Otisbut next year the tragedy could be called Claudia, Marcelo or maybe even Samuel. Hurricane season is not over yet: the catastrophes are, in fact, just beginning.