González and Noboa dispute an election with a shortened period, but transcendental for the future

Quito, Oct 12 (EFE).- Correist Luisa González and businessman Daniel Noboa are competing this Sunday for the Presidency of Ecuador, in an exceptional election for a shortened period of just fifteen months in power, but which will be transcendental in the face of the future of the country, which must overcome the governance crisis that led to this situation.

González, bishop of former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017), and Noboa, heir to the business empire of his father, the banana sector magnate Álvaro Noboa, will go to an atypical electoral final after a period of political instability, social upheaval and insecurity, that has shaken the country in recent years.

Whoever wins these elections will only complete the four-year period (2021-2025) that corresponded to the current president, the conservative Guillermo Lasso, who shortened his mandate by invoking the so-called "crossed death" last May.

With this constitutional mechanism he forced these extraordinary elections by dissolving the National Assembly (Parliament), controlled by the opposition led by Correismo and which sought to remove him in a political trial where he was accused of alleged embezzlement (embezzlement), a charge that he categorically rejects. .

Lasso, who did not stand for re-election in these elections, blamed the Assembly for obstructing his policies in a chamber where the ruling party barely had representation and left the renewal of both powers in the hands of the voters.

Thus, González and Noboa went to the electoral final after being the two candidates with the most votes in a first round where the new composition of the Assembly was also chosen, in which Correismo will once again be the first force but will not have an absolute majority. Therefore, whoever wins the presidential elections must generate pacts.

Of the 137 seats, Revolución Ciudadana, the movement led by Correa, obtained more than fifty.

A surprising second place was obtained by the Construye movement, whose presidential candidate was Fernando Villavicencio, murdered on August 9 while leaving a rally in Quito.

Construye would reach about 27 seats and would be followed by the conservative Social Christian Party (PSC), which has fifteen seats; and the National Democratic Action alliance (ADN), from Noboa, with just over a dozen assembly members.

Then minor groups appear such as Actuemos, by former presidential candidate Otto Sonnenholzner; Pachakutik, the political arm of the indigenous movement: Claro que se puede, by former presidential candidate Yaku Pérez; Reto, Centro Democrático, Amigo and other local groups, which would also add up when integrating majorities.

The six assembly members from abroad still need to be defined, whose votes will be repeated this Sunday after the problems registered with the "telematic voting" computer platform during the first round.

With this panorama, any of the two finalist candidates who manage to win in Sunday's election should analyze the political pacts to achieve an environment of governability, although it would be easier for González to go with the majority bloc in the National Assembly.

Noboa, somewhat more complicated, could direct his strategy to forming majorities with eventual allies such as Construye, who could play against Correism, for being openly critical of that trend.

For former legislator Ramiro Aguilar, the next legislature will be "super complicated", especially for Noboa, who could also try an alliance with the PSC, once a decisive legislative force, but which is now trying to heal from the wound of supporting the Lasso Government. .

For Aguilar, there are many possibilities that arise when analyzing the formation of the Assembly, but he stressed that governability will depend on the distance between González and Noboa that is reached in Sunday's election.

"If the result is tight," governability could have more difficulties, since it could force the ruler to make a series of pacts, some of which could be unpleasant; But if the scrutiny leaves a "loose" distance, this can play in favor of governability, said the Ecuadorian jurist.

Aguilar also said that the upcoming period will be one of transition because it is short, but he assured that it will be "fundamental for the future" because it will define which ideological trend will be positioned for the coming decades.

Fernando Arroyo Leon

Quito, Oct 12 (EFE).- More than 100,000 officials will participate in security operations for the voting in the second presidential round, in which the successor of conservative Guillermo Lasso will be designated, among the candidates Daniel Noboa and Luisa González, reported this Thursday the Minister of the Interior, Juan Zapata.

"We are absolutely ready for the electoral process on October 15. We have activated all the intelligence teams at the national level," Zapata said in a press conference.

He explained that the Police will be in charge of the external security of the electoral precincts and of the entire national territory, in addition, of security in facilities in delegations, warehouses, electoral processing centers, among others.

"We will be with 53,707 police officers throughout the country. Obviously, the largest number are from the preventive axis, 45,535, while 6,281 will be from the investigative axis and 1,891 from the intelligence axis," he listed.

Likewise, he pointed out that there will be three command posts: the unified one, which will contain prevention and response institutions in ECU 911; the strategic command post, which will be in the General Police Command, and operational command posts.

"On Sunday there are more than 100,000 public officials who will be in the security, prevention and response axis, obviously adding the Police, Armed Forces, ECU 911, the emergency services, which will be activated at the national level," commented the minister.

Candidate security

The security of the candidates was reinforced after the murder at the hands of hitmen, on August 9, of the then presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio as he left a political rally in Quito.

Regarding the security of the presidential candidates, Zapata specified that the operation for businessman Daniel Noboa, of the National Democratic Action alliance (ADN), is in charge of the Armed Forces, however, the intelligence of the different security forces coordinates information .

He noted that Luisa González, candidate for the Correista Citizen Revolution movement, has three police officers, but her security is also in charge of the Armed Forces.

Andrés Arauz, vice presidential candidate with González, is protected by 21 police officers and the vice presidential candidate with Noboa, Verónica Abad, by 19 police officers.

"For everyone's vote there is a special procedure that we will obviously also coordinate with the Armed Forces," he said.

Zapata recalled that at noon tomorrow, the so-called "dry law" begins, which prohibits the sale and consumption of liquor, until noon next Monday.

Rafael Poveda, Vice Minister of Defense, indicated that military personnel moved to different points since Wednesday to carry out their security tasks.

The General Commander of Police, Cesar Zapata, pointed out that they have reinforced security in five areas where they consider that, due to the crime issue, problems may arise.

In addition, a total of 279 police officers will support security in the so-called Vote at Home, which will take place tomorrow, for which 712 citizens have registered who cannot approach the voting stations.

Results

The president of the National Electoral Council, Diana Atamaint, hopes that ninety minutes after the polling stations close, the first results of the elections in which Lasso's successor will be designated will begin to be displayed, until May 24, 2025.

He added that exit polls are authorized, but only the CNE will proclaim the official data.

The electoral calendar indicates that until December 8, the credentials must be delivered to the assembly members elected on August 20, while the delivery of credentials to the elected presidential duo will be on December 11.

The National Assembly (Parliament) has up to ten days after taking office to swear in the new ruler.