From New York to Nagorno Karabakh 2023/09/22

This week we should be talking in its entirety about the 78th UN General Assembly, its debates, reactions, the speeches of the presidents, heads of state, prime ministers or chancellors who represent their countries. However, in recent hours a decisive military anti-terrorist operation has been in the works by the government of the president of Azerbaijan, Ilhiam Aliev, to fully recover the much disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh. The recent pretext from the Azeri side is due to the death of two civilians and four Azeri police officers who died from the explosion of mines planted by Armenian sabotage groups, but the truth is that for almost two weeks military movements have been seen in the entire region with the sole purpose of completely recovering the area.

Although the UN General Assembly mostly opaques international news, it seems to me that the situation between Azerbaijan and Armenia is of utmost importance for the international arena and stability in the South Caucasus, especially in the face of a Russia that is trying of being a mediating State between the countries that dispute a territory that is within Azerbaijan, but that has been inhabited for many years mostly by separatist Armenians.

Russia has tried to make the Caucasus region live an environment of stability in recent years, but with the war it fought in Ukraine, its efforts have been reduced or the current situation reflects that “asking for peace” is something hypocritical for what it is. what he is currently doing in Ukraine.

Russia has been able to send peacekeeping contingents that serve as UN blue helmets. They have been effective to a certain extent and peace agreements or agreements to lower arms have been signed, but it is important to clarify that the governments of Baku and Yerevan have on different occasions violated the agreements signed in Moscow to continue fighting for a land that for them is holy or constitutes an important ethnic national value.

Armenia and Azerbaijan are experiencing a tense calm after the latest territorial disputes in 2020 when there were days of combat inside and outside Nagorno
Karabakh, where Azerbaijan managed to recover some territories of Karabakh that had been in the hands of the Armenians since 1994.

After Azeri bombings on Armenian positions, a ceasefire was brokered during the night of September 20 with talks between the Armenian separatists and the Aliev government authorities. Although peace is far from being seen, everything seems to indicate that Armenia has decided not to shed blood, therefore, Azerbaijan would recover Karabakh completely and the current Republic of Artsakh would be absorbed by Azerbaijan.

The current Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinianwho rose to power in 2018 after overthrowing Serzh Sargsyannow finds itself in a complicated position due to the decision not to fight for Karabakh.

The Armenians call for his resignation, but Pashinyan he knows perfectly well that Armenia has no chance to fight over Karabakh.

And while all this is happening, the inhabitants of Karabakh and the capital Stepanakert are looking for a way out towards Armenia in the face of what is about to happen in the coming days.

Honestly, Armenia does not have the capacity to fight against Azerbaijan even though it is part of the CSTO. Less now that relations between Moscow and Yerevan are not the best and where Russia only seeks to mediate in the conflict.