Continuity is not an option for the EU 2023/10/06

For Democrats and Republicans, the continuity offered by the majority party candidates is an alley that leads to economic and diplomatic pressures. Since the elections will coincide, as happens every 12 years, the United States will make its weight felt like never before in history due to the armed threat that is brewing beyond the river.

Reports from two intelligence agencies of that country agree that criminal groups, due to their armed capacity, can constitute a threat to its democracy, because they would be acquiring a profile of adversaries of the Morena government.

The reports until recently generated reservations in the Congress of that country until the unfortunate events that occurred this week in Chiapas, where Morena pollsters were sacrificed in reaction, according to journalistic reports, for the benefits that the federal government grants to one of the criminal groups.

The national and neighboring intelligence bodies had already warned the federal government that the proximity – aired by a State Department report – with one of the groups would provoke retaliation by its rival against officials.

This is part of the recent concerns brought to the table with the visit of senior US authorities, for whom the federal electoral process represents the highest risk due to the probability of violence against candidates, especially for municipal positions.

The narrative has united the two American parties that view a policy of continuity with concern. And its analysis is based on the following:

The Mexican government intentionally dismantled the legal framework that allowed DEA agents to operate—collaborate—in Mexican territory, damaging communication and exchange of information with equally concerned national security forces.

The photograph of the greeting with the mother of a drug trafficker sent the wrong message, which immediately motivated an investigation by the closest circle in power and the “informal” exchange of a spokesperson for the Mexican Armed Forces who shared their concerns, but It was agreed to continue the flow of information to reactivate the arrests.

Another signal that the Republicans took as an affront was the resistance to strengthening the strategy against fentanyl.

According to Ryan C. Berg, an expert at the Center for Strategic Studies and International Studies and director of its Americas Program, “it is estimated that the cartels control almost half of Mexico's territory, a figure that could be underestimated. Seven of the 10 cities with the highest number of homicides in the world per capita are now in Mexico.

“With approximately one year left in his term, homicides during López Obrador's term have nearly equaled those during his predecessor's six years in office and have far surpassed those of former President Felipe Calderón, who launched a frontal challenge to the cartels that López Obrador ridicules as an irresponsible organization.”

According to C. Berg's analysis, violence and fentanyl trafficking have had negative impacts on the Mexican economy and the foreign policy of the United States, which is why Antony Blinken's visit.

Mexico, which represents about a quarter of Latin America and the Caribbean's regional GDP, received only 17 percent of all foreign direct investment in the region in 2022.

In addition to its security crisis and political uncertainty, Mexico has yet to convince foreign companies that it is stable enough to support large-scale investments in strategic sectors such as semiconductors.