2024: a stormy scenario 2023/10/09

The first major structural problem that will have to be faced is disenchantment with democracy, since according to the data from the most recent Latinobarómetro report, Mexico is one of the Latin American countries where citizen support for democracy, as the best form of government, has had the greatest setbacks and where it is declared that authoritarian governments could be preferred.

The 2024 elections will also take place in the most violent context of our recent history, and with criminal groups willing to do anything, with an increasing public presence and with increasingly reliable demonstrations of challenges to the State: they have attacked officials at all levels, but also against high command of the Armed Forces.

There are external factors that exacerbate these problems: the most visible is the irregular migration of tens of thousands of people from Central and South America, who in their passage through Mexico experience extortion of all kinds perpetrated by both criminal groups and authorities that are denounced, again and again by the victims, without anything relevant happening to prevent and avoid the situation.

The above has caused numerous municipalities to collapse, which are “left to their fate” by both the state authorities, but, above all, the federal ones, which make decisions and establish international agreements, without considering the fragile and overwhelmed situation. that is experienced in dozens of highly populated municipalities and with their own dilemmas and complexities.

The data that Inegi recently released regarding birth rates and mortality are also revealing of the enormous challenges facing our country, and are imposed on us as the great determining factor of our possibilities and of the greatest threats that loom over the population. : loss of years of healthy life, reduction or stagnation, depending on the region, in life expectancy at birth; prevalence of teenage pregnancy, high birth rates in several regions and high aging rates in others, all in the midst of mortality that is determined by largely avoidable causes.

In the United States there will be a presidential election next year, but also a Congressional election; which places Mexico in a situation of tension and vulnerability against which, whether we like it or not, it continues to be the main world power, and which is, in addition, our main trading partner and on which we depend to have a relevant place in the possibility of attracting investments that are withdrawing from China.

As if all of the above were not already too much, the forecasts regarding drought and the possibility of shortages and, as a result, a new inflationary process in the food sector anticipate a possible worsening of the conditions in which people live. poorest among the poor, who were the only group in which well-being conditions did not improve in the last five years.

It equally challenges us to appropriately name what is in front of us; because naming is essential to explain, but, above all, to understand and begin to resolve everything we need to become a country of peace, justice, well-being and possibilities of prosperity for each inhabitant of our country.

Mexico cannot wait, and in the face of the stormy scenario that threatens us, the best option we have is that of a strengthened, dialoguing democracy, defender of diversity and plurality, but that is precisely what still needs to be built.