2022: New normal and point of no return? (II of II)

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Sofia Salina.

"The presidency of Argentina (in CELAC) is a guarantee of continuity of the Mexican work plan of the previous two years," indicates a recent document from the Gilberto Bosques Center for International Studies.

Here a little more of the extensive and revealing document.

“The Argentine challenge focuses on giving continuity to high-level political coordination, endorsing the cooperation ties initiated with China, which is the region's second largest trading partner; as well as being a reliable interlocutor with the United States.

For various analysts, the presidency of Argentina is a guarantee of continuity of the Mexican work plan of the previous two years.

However, the Latin American geopolitical environment for 2022 with the inauguration of the presidencies in Honduras and Chile and the possibility that leftist candidates will be elected in the next presidential elections in Brazil and Colombia, would tip the Latin American balance to the left. and center left. In that sense, these advances could boost China in the Latin American region.

According to academic Pedro Mendes of the University of Cambridge, “the change could also make it more difficult for the United States to continue isolating authoritarian regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba.”

With Argentina at the head of CELAC, Mexico will focus on its management of the Pacific Alliance, which it will chair pro tempore during 2022. The AP is a regional bloc made up of Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, which represents 41 % of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Latin America and the Caribbean and ranks as the eighth economy globally and the eighth exporting power in the world.

In this context, the signing of the Buenaventura Declaration on post-COVID economic recovery and the recognition of the Trade Agreement with Singapore, the first Associated State, were highlighted.

Likewise, the process of incorporating Ecuador as a full member began, so it will be necessary to finalize the trade agreement with Mexico, while it was also decided to start the negotiation process for the entry of the Republic of Korea as an Associated State.

For the analysts, with both presidencies pro tempore, the Argentina-Mexico axis is consolidated on the Lima Group itself or the Forum for the Progress of South America (PROSUR, made up of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,

Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay and Peru), with the common objective of carrying out concrete actions towards regional integration and agreements beyond trade.

The result of the recent presidential election in Chile joins the group of progressive governments that, together with Mexico and Peru, can modify the correlation of forces in the Pacific Alliance.

In the 2022 scenario, the future presidential elections in Colombia and Brazil in which Gustavo Petro and Lula da Silva could emerge victorious, respectively, could support Mexico in its attempt to forge an alliance of progressive governments in the region and open a new stage in the global representation of Latin America.

For now, Argentina, Bolivia, Peru and the incoming Chilean government have joined this initiative towards a new international axis. However, it will also be necessary to consider the differences and dynamics at the national level, the specific economic models and the challenges that the COVID-19 pandemic still represents in order to achieve this progressive alliance.

The global context requires a renewed multilateralism: in this sense, 2022 is the prelude to the organization of the proposal of the UN Secretary General António Guterres, to carry out in 2023 the meeting of leaders from around the world in the "Summit from the future".

The objective of this Summit will be to reach a consensus on the great global challenges, from climate change to armed conflicts, regulation of new technologies, a new "peace agenda" that encompasses nuclear weapons, cyber warfare, autonomous weapons and agreements on the management of outer space”, detailed the study by the Center for International Studies Gilberto Bosques.

@Sofiasi2010

Cargo 2022: New normality and point of no return? (II of II) first appeared in El Arsenal.

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